Bus Drivers, School

Moderate Risk
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Occupation snapshot

What does this snowflake show?
The Snowflake is a visual summary of the five badges: Automation Risk (calculated), Risk (polled), Growth, Wages and Volume. It gives you an instant snapshot of an occupations profile. The colour of the Snowflake relates to its size. The better the occupation scores in relation to others, the larger and greener the Snowflake becomes.
JOB SCORE
2.8/10
What's this?
Job Score (higher is better):

We rate jobs using four factors. These are:

- Chance of being automated
- Job growth
- Wages
- Volume of available positions

These are some key things to think about when job hunting.

Risk & user votes

Calculated automation risk

51% (Moderate Risk)

Moderate Risk (41-60%): This occupation may be meaningfully affected by automation. Some parts of the role may be suitable for AI, software, or robotics, while others still rely on human skill, judgement, trust, or real-world context. People in this range may benefit from building skills that complement automation and reduce replacement risk.

More information on what this score is, and how it is calculated is available here.

Human strengths important in this job

These are human abilities and work contexts that are important in this occupation. They may help explain why parts of the role are harder to replace end-to-end, but they are not the only inputs into the automation score.

Assisting and caring for others

Quite important
Why this matters
Provide hands-on help, emotional support, or personal care to people—work that depends on empathy, trust, and responding to individual needs in the moment.
Jobs that also use this strength

Social perceptiveness

Quite important
Why this matters
Noticing others’ emotions and reactions in the moment and adjusting what you say or do based on why they’re responding that way.
Jobs that also use this strength

Decision-making and problem solving

Quite important
Why this matters
Analyze information, weigh tradeoffs, and choose the best solution—especially when situations are ambiguous, high-stakes, or have real-world consequences.
Jobs that also use this strength

What users think

Based on 115 votes

59% chance of full automation within the next two decades

Our visitors have voted they are unsure if this occupation will be automated. This assessment is further supported by the calculated automation risk level, which estimates 51% chance of automation.

What do you think the risk of automation is?

What is the likelihood that Bus Drivers, School will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence within the next 20 years?

Sentiment

Based on user votes over time

View sentiment trend

How opinions have changed over time

Pay & outlook

Wages

Low paid relative to other professions

In 2024, the median annual wage for Bus Drivers, School was $47,040 ($23 per hour).

The median annual wage for Bus Drivers, School was 5.0% lower than the national median annual wage, which stood at $49,500.

View wage trend

Wages over time

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Growth

Slow growth relative to other professions.

The number of 'Bus Drivers, School' job openings is expected to rise 0.2% by 2034

View employment trend

Total employment, and estimated job openings

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period between 2023 and 2033
Updated projections are due 09-2025.

Volume

Significantly greater range of job opportunities compared to other professions

As of 2024 there were 387,920 people employed as 'Bus Drivers, School' within the United States.

This represents around 0.25% of the employed workforce across the country

Put another way, around 1 in 397 people are employed as 'Bus Drivers, School'.

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What people are saying (4)

Jasmine
30 Apr 2026 13:33
This is very unlikely to be anytime soon. 1. Parents do not want their children taken to school by robots. 2. Supervision of students on the bus is still required. 3. During emergency situations: a kindergartener will not be able to cut themselves out of a seatbelt and will still need the guidance of a trusted adult figure to lead them to safety. 4. Unloading and loading procedures for special needs students will require human assistance for the foreseeable future. I could go on and on here. The only way that this position is replaced by robots is if the position is redesigned ENTIRELY for ONLY operation of the school bus itself, but as we all know, that is not a bus driver's only responsibility. This prediction is not based in reality, as are many other predictions on this site.
nisha kopikar (Uncertain)
21 Sep 2024 08:08
well, alreadyself driving cars exist but now they must be quite a lot more careful.they also neeed to be able to park.
Ripa (Low)
07 Jul 2024 21:44
The job needs an adult to care for the children while the bus is driving to keep them safe
JG
20 Oct 2023 08:37
There will still need to be someone to supervise the kids on that bus. This just means the driver won't have to actually drive anymore, good stuff.
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Job description

Drive a school bus to transport students. Ensure adherence to safety rules. May assist students in boarding or exiting.

O*NET-SOC code: 53-3051.00