Commercial Pilots

Moderate Risk
47%
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Vote Comments (102)
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AUTOMATION RISK
CALCULATED
55%
(Moderate Risk)
POLLING
38%
(Low Risk)
Average: 47%
LABOR DEMAND
GROWTH
5.7%
by year 2033
WAGES
$113,080
or $54.36 per hour
Volume
52,750
as of 2023
SUMMARY
JOB SCORE
6.2/10

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Calculated automation risk

55% (Moderate Risk)

Moderate Risk (41-60%): Occupations with a moderate risk of automation usually involve routine tasks but still require some human judgment and interaction.

More information on what this score is, and how it is calculated is available here.

Some quite important qualities of the job are difficult to automate:

  • Cramped Work Space, Awkward Positions

  • Manual Dexterity

  • Finger Dexterity

  • Assisting and Caring for Others

  • Social Perceptiveness

User poll

38% chance of full automation within the next two decades

Our visitors have voted there's a low chance this occupation will be automated. However, the automation risk level we have generated suggests a higher chance of automation: 55% chance of automation.

What do you think the risk of automation is?

What is the likelihood that Commercial Pilots will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence within the next 20 years?






Sentiment

The following graph is included wherever there is a substantial amount of votes to render meaningful data. These visual representations display user poll results over time, providing a significant indication of sentiment trends.

Sentiment over time (quarterly)

Sentiment over time (yearly)

Growth

Fast growth relative to other professions

The number of 'Commercial Pilots' job openings is expected to rise 5.7% by 2033

Total employment, and estimated job openings

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period between 2023 and 2033
Updated projections are due 09-2025.

Wages

Very high paid relative to other professions

In 2023, the median annual wage for 'Commercial Pilots' was $113,080, or $54 per hour

'Commercial Pilots' were paid 135.3% higher than the national median wage, which stood at $48,060

Wages over time

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Volume

Moderate range of job opportunities compared to other professions

As of 2023 there were 52,750 people employed as 'Commercial Pilots' within the United States.

This represents around < 0.001% of the employed workforce across the country

Put another way, around 1 in 2 thousand people are employed as 'Commercial Pilots'.

Job description

Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft on nonscheduled air carrier routes, or helicopters. Requires Commercial Pilot certificate. Includes charter pilots with similar certification, and air ambulance and air tour pilots. Excludes regional, national, and international airline pilots.

SOC Code: 53-2012.00

Comments

Leave a comment

Oli (Low) 5 days ago
People will not trust to get on a plane from the current generations unless there is a qualified pilot onboard. Many people already have fear of flying and this would just make it worse for them since there is no real human being in the cockpit and it is controlled remotely. Additionally, it is just generally safer for a real human pilot as they are able to use their experience and training across emergency situations. For example, AI is very procedural and programmed to do exactly what manuals and procedures say, but what if there is a catastrophic emergency that requires quick-thinking? Many emergencies are procedural however there are exceptions when a pilots own experience is necessary for the safety of others. Plus, a real pilot is going to have empathy and adrenaline in a emergency situation as they also want to save themselves.. A remote controlled plane or AI powered plane won't have this and it will be a completely different situation. Maybe 20-30 years there could be single-pilot operations but no full automation.
0 0 Reply
T (No chance) 13 days ago
No human being will get on an airplane without a human being AT LEAST as a backup. APUs are constantly INOP in commercial aviation. APUs are not bullet proof and even if they were a human will always be in an airplane flying other human beings.
0 0 Reply
Jim 5 months ago
There is a huge shortage of pilots. This and AI could help the case for a reduction to a single pilot per flight (easy profit booster). Not looking like a great career option for the amount of stress, pressure, and training required.
0 2 Reply
skelly 15 days ago
this just simply isnt true there is not a pilot shortage
0 0 Reply
Overall equivalent (No chance) 5 months ago
FAA
Passenger airlines no chance in 20 years
Cargo would be the first
Pilot unions are very strong
Single pilot flights are possible with a copilot remote as needed.
1 2 Reply
CFIguy (No chance) 6 months ago
We already have the technology to automate aviation, but I see no chance of it happening in the next few decades. The FAA moves slowly, airlines are controlled by pilot unions, and the AI would much much more real world training to understand emergency situations before it would be trusted with autonomously flying an aircraft. Maybe by 2060 we might see some planes go automated, but until then it is still a very rewarding and fun career to pursue.
1 1 Reply
Luca (Low) 8 months ago
requires human interference in accidents and emergencies
have to be 1000% reliable in order to not cause problems
can scare public away
3 2 Reply
Felipe (Low) 9 months ago
Simple. The pilot is the hierarchy within the system. Today, AI can indeed perform even complex tasks, but you can never trust an AI 100% to pilot an airplane. The critical factor is simple: if there is any change or problem with the aircraft, a pilot can act quickly by not strictly following airline protocols. Following protocols 100% does not always guarantee safety.

Examples like TACA Flight 110, where a Boeing 737-300 lost both engines, show this. Instead of following the manual and returning, the pilots landed on the grass ahead, which was the right decision. This applies to many situations. In the case of United Airlines Flight 232, it's another example. Following the correct protocols isn't always the right choice and can sometimes prevent worse tragedies.

In the United case, let's suppose an AI is in command and the plane loses all three hydraulic systems. The company's manual doesn't cover a situation where all engines are lost. At that moment, what would the AI do? Even if it follows the tower controller's voice commands correctly, it’s impossible to determine the flight's fate because there's no human inside. However, this isn't to say that following protocols is always wrong. It’s just a reminder to follow protocols, but if you ever need to break them, it should be in a life-or-death situation.
2 2 Reply
Furry Racoon Cat (Moderate) 9 months ago
With autopilot becoming more prevalent and the rise of autonomous navigation systems, there is a chance that pilots could be replaced.
0 7 Reply
Joe (No chance) 9 months ago
Pilots cannot be replaced by AI since there are many skills that AI can't possess like complex decision making and most passengers wouldn't trust AI to operate their aircraft. 20 years from now, many of the newer planes that fly nowadays will still be flying in 2040. Another consideration is the single pilot operation, which is the primary focus right now which will not likely happen before the 2040s. Pilots have minimal risk of being automated.
2 3 Reply
Stirling Martin (Low) 10 months ago
Cybersecurity could make this impossible.
2 3 Reply
Ron Hounslow (No chance) 10 months ago
All large commercial aircraft currently in production and coming off the production line today need two pilots for operation during crucial stages of flight. It will take a decade plus plus for the regulatory requirement to change,

Many of those airframes are going to be in service for the next fifteen to twenty years plus.

What you may see in the next decade or so is a reduction in the number of pilots required by the industry overall if single pilot in the cruise becomes allowable on Long Haul Flights.
3 3 Reply
do not want to say (Low) 10 months ago
because eve with ai there will be thousand of plane in the sky at one time and one miscalculation from the ai on a plane can cause it to crash
0 4 Reply
EK1934 (Uncertain) 11 months ago
The thing is, it will take a long time to develop and for AI to get approved by the FAA
1 3 Reply
Miles (Low) 11 months ago
commercial pilots have some instances of ai but commercial pilots take years of training naps and skills to complete
And ai would need to learn a lot of controls and would need precise management one small move and the ai is done.
0 3 Reply
Mani salah (Low) 12 months ago
The artificial intllegence can't replace the human's emotion and it's way of thinking in some situations and must be supervised by a trained and experienced pilot
5 3 Reply
Aranyak Maitra (Moderate) 1 year ago
The development of automated and remote flying technology for military equipment can be a game changer for civil aviation industry. Automation has already reduced the number of pilots from 3 to 2.
1 7 Reply
Luke (No chance) 1 year ago
Pilots can do things robots can't. Somtimes you can't follow the rules and need to break them. Think about the gimli glider. The pilot had no landing gear, he was way too high and way too fast. He did a side slip menuveur, only able to be completed in glider aircraft. It was a risky move but it would have to be done if they wanted to land. They succeded by breaking the rules and testing the limits. That is somthing that can nevery be done by a robot.
9 2 Reply
Lucas 1 year ago
true
2 2 Reply
someone (Low) 1 year ago
because there is still going to be someone watching over the ai to make sure it doesn't make mistakes and also someone needs to take over in an emergency
1 2 Reply
Mohammad 1 year ago
That is true but i don't think the AI will move to commercial planes any time soon, but for military planes, they will take 90% for sure soon
1 2 Reply
Lisa (Uncertain) 1 year ago
This one is tricky! I do not doubt AI could learn to proficiently drive a plane, though I do doubt if they're reliable in terms of safety. I foresee companies using this to cut costs, only to receive public outcry in return. I think the real question here is: Do we want artificial intelligence driving our planes?
2 2 Reply
Matheus (Low) 1 year ago
The competent regulatory body, (FAA) is VERY conservative. So even if we had the technology, I doubt that they would allow autonomous commercial planes.
In this case, regulation is the hold-up, not the technology.
2 2 Reply

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