Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

Low Risk
Low High

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Why it fits

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Occupation snapshot

What does this snowflake show?
The Snowflake is a visual summary of the five badges: Automation Risk (calculated), Risk (polled), Growth, Wages and Volume. It gives you an instant snapshot of an occupations profile. The colour of the Snowflake relates to its size. The better the occupation scores in relation to others, the larger and greener the Snowflake becomes.
JOB SCORE
7.6/10
What's this?
Job Score (higher is better):

We rate jobs using four factors. These are:

- Chance of being automated
- Job growth
- Wages
- Volume of available positions

These are some key things to think about when job hunting.

Risk & user votes

Calculated automation risk

27% (Low Risk)

Low Risk (21-40%): This occupation has a lower risk of full replacement by AI, software, or robotic systems. Some tasks may be automated or assisted, but the role usually still relies on human judgement, communication, responsibility, physical adaptability, or practical decision-making.

More information on what this score is, and how it is calculated is available here.

Human strengths important in this job

These are human abilities and work contexts that are important in this occupation. They may help explain why parts of the role are harder to replace end-to-end, but they are not the only inputs into the automation score.

Thinking creatively

Quite important
Why this matters
Coming up with original ideas and designs—creating new concepts, products, systems, or artistic work. This kind of open-ended invention and taste-based judgment is harder to automate end-to-end than routine, rule-based tasks.
Jobs that also use this strength

Critical thinking

Quite important
Why this matters
Weigh options using logic and evidence, spot weaknesses in arguments, and choose the best approach when there isn’t a single clear answer.
Jobs that also use this strength

Coordinating others’ work

Quite important
Why this matters
Bringing people together, assigning tasks, and keeping a group aligned so work gets done.
Jobs that also use this strength

Coaching and developing others

Quite important
Why this matters
Helps people learn and improve through coaching, mentoring, and feedback. This relies on trust, motivation, and adapting guidance to each person—work that’s hard to replace end-to-end with automation.
Jobs that also use this strength

Communicating with people outside the organization

Quite important
Why this matters
Represents the organization to customers, the public, or government—handling questions, concerns, and relationship-building through conversations, writing, calls, or email.
Jobs that also use this strength
Show 1 more strength

Active learning

Quite important
Why this matters
Keeps learning from new information and applying it to make better decisions now and in the future, especially when situations change.
Jobs that also use this strength

What users think

Based on 242 votes

20% chance of full automation within the next two decades

Our visitors have voted there's a low chance this occupation will be automated. This assessment is further supported by the calculated automation risk level, which estimates 27% chance of automation.

What do you think the risk of automation is?

What is the likelihood that Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence within the next 20 years?

Sentiment

Based on user votes over time

View sentiment trend

How opinions have changed over time

Pay & outlook

Wages

Moderately paid relative to other professions

In 2024, the median annual wage for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers was $59,810 ($29 per hour).

The median annual wage for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers was 20.8% higher than the national median annual wage, which stood at $49,500.

View wage trend

Wages over time

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Growth

Very fast growth relative to other professions

The number of 'Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers' job openings is expected to rise 8.1% by 2034

View employment trend

Total employment, and estimated job openings

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period between 2023 and 2033
Updated projections are due 09-2025.

Volume

Significantly greater range of job opportunities compared to other professions

As of 2024 there were 396,870 people employed as 'Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers' within the United States.

This represents around 0.26% of the employed workforce across the country

Put another way, around 1 in 388 people are employed as 'Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers'.

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What people are saying (13)

Leave a comment
Kevin Voigt
25 May 2026 12:02
You never know if they have a built in torch, recovery tank vacuum pump etc. These bots are able to fly I see it doing commercial in 10 years. Having a bot maneuver in attics might take 20 years either way we are the last tradesmen of the 21st century. It doesn't matter anyway AI will have taken over in the next 5 years. Yes will keep some of us tradesman alive to keep them and their server rooms cool until they can do it themselves. WTF? Why did they create something that's going to replace humans in the first place??? errr Supidx10
Glenn Prosser (No chance)
25 Aug 2024 23:28
The job requires a high level of knowledge that is physically converted in to intricate, and exacting hand/finger movements.
The locations these jobs are performed range from atop of high-rise buildings through to confined spaces.
Complex problem solving is required, and sometimes the answer may require solutions that contravene logic.
Then, once the job is completed, inter-personal skills are highly important in convincing customers of the correct solution.
mix (No chance)
14 Sep 2022 02:14
I dont see how this could possibly be automated in 20 years. The spaces you have to crawl in and the skills needed would take much longer to automate.
Lynne
12 Jan 2024 02:56
Thats why the chance is so low
Gary B (No chance)
28 Apr 2022 16:53
This is hilarious. Once again, you can tell no one has a clue what goes into HVAC. Can't wait to meet the robot who drives to a site, puts up a ladder, climbs it, pulls up a compressor, recovery machine, vacuum pump, gauges, or just has it all built-in. Goes up to the unit or multiple units and figures out one or more issues, drives to the supplier, buys parts, drives back, fixes the unit, say a condenser coil on a 20-ton. Then, once they are done, they are sent to a site where we are retrofitting controls onto 30 rooftops using GFX and Distech controls. Going to need some serious dexterity to climb above a drop ceiling onto a wall to pull 50 wires half a mile, then do the wiring of the controllers, then program the controllers, and then test all of it. Then add the Jace and connect to the building intranet and also make exceptions for outside access, all while working with "IT", which essentially doesn't exist for many companies, so it better be able to do it all. There's so much more; it's not even funny.

No way, not in 50 years.
john doe (No chance)
22 Feb 2022 01:28
Unless you can get a robot to crawl in an attic and manage to take the HVAC equipment out without damaging the house, then sure.
Robert
01 Aug 2021 09:37
You're telling me that there will be a robot that can do all the physical labor, technical installation, and repairs of HVAC systems? Lol, please. If that were the case, no job will exist.
Nate (No chance)
23 Jun 2021 19:24
I believe robots/software will make it easier to work on HVAC equipment making it so any random joe can work on it but a robot doing such in depth work as wiring repairs and burner replacement especially in the next 2 decades seems unlikely
Refrigeration technician
16 Feb 2020 02:00
So HVAC/R techs have a 65% chance but electricians have a 15% chance? This website is ridiculous. Pretty much any trade skill in the service industry will be protected for a long time. Even as the systems become more automated there will have to be human technicians to maintain those systems. Over time it may definitely become more consolidated, but the future is a very tricky thing to predict.
Jebac disa (Low)
31 Jan 2020 15:56
Hard job with unique jd
Fef (Low)
30 Oct 2019 11:15
I think it would need a very advanced robot to carry all the manual labour needed to install or repair an air conditioner. A robot able to walk, lift, drill, use tools.
Skagit Haines (Low)
27 Aug 2019 18:29
I dont think there will be robots capable of troubleshooting everything in HVAC Systems. it requires manual dexterity

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Job description

Install or repair heating, central air conditioning, HVAC, or refrigeration systems, including oil burners, hot-air furnaces, and heating stoves.

O*NET-SOC code: 49-9021.00