Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

High Risk
Low High

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Occupation snapshot

What does this snowflake show?
The Snowflake is a visual summary of the five badges: Automation Risk (calculated), Risk (polled), Growth, Wages and Volume. It gives you an instant snapshot of an occupations profile. The colour of the Snowflake relates to its size. The better the occupation scores in relation to others, the larger and greener the Snowflake becomes.
JOB SCORE
4.3/10
What's this?
Job Score (higher is better):

We rate jobs using four factors. These are:

- Chance of being automated
- Job growth
- Wages
- Volume of available positions

These are some key things to think about when job hunting.

Risk & user votes

Calculated automation risk

68% (High Risk)

High Risk (61-80%): This occupation shows a significant risk of end-to-end replacement by automation. Many core parts of the role may be structured, repeatable, software-driven, or physically predictable enough for AI, machines, or robotic systems to take over. If you work in this area, it may be worth exploring safer related careers or moving towards more human-centred responsibilities.

More information on what this score is, and how it is calculated is available here.

Human strengths important in this job

These are human abilities and work contexts that are important in this occupation. They may help explain why parts of the role are harder to replace end-to-end, but they are not the only inputs into the automation score.

Decision-making and problem solving

Quite important
Why this matters
Analyze information, weigh tradeoffs, and choose the best solution—especially when situations are ambiguous, high-stakes, or have real-world consequences.
Jobs that also use this strength

Communicating with people outside the organization

Quite important
Why this matters
Represents the organization to customers, the public, or government—handling questions, concerns, and relationship-building through conversations, writing, calls, or email.
Jobs that also use this strength

What users think

Based on 668 votes

62% chance of full automation within the next two decades

Our visitors have voted that it's probable this occupation will be automated. This assessment is further supported by the calculated automation risk level, which estimates 68% chance of automation.

What do you think the risk of automation is?

What is the likelihood that Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence within the next 20 years?

Sentiment

Based on user votes over time

View sentiment trend

How opinions have changed over time

Pay & outlook

Wages

Moderately paid relative to other professions

In 2024, the median annual wage for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers was ( per hour).

View wage trend

Wages over time

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Growth

Fast growth relative to other professions

The number of 'Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers' job openings is expected to rise 4.0% by 2034

View employment trend

Total employment, and estimated job openings

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period between 2023 and 2033
Updated projections are due 09-2025.

Volume

Significantly greater range of job opportunities compared to other professions

As of 2024 there were 2,070,480 people employed as 'Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers' within the United States.

This represents around of the employed workforce across the country

Put another way, around 1 in people are employed as 'Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers'.

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What people are saying (43)

Leave a comment
AJ (Low)
26 Sep 2025 02:55
Autonomous driving is coming, however, there is sometime before error free driving will exist for normal cars. For big rigs, who have many variables which need to be looked after whilst in the road, whilst parking, whilst loading and unloading, routes, what your load is. It is the kind of job which will always require human supervision because you’re literally driving a tank down the road which also at times has hazardous material. Cars is one things, a semi is a whole different ball game
Al
12 Mar 2025 02:47
I will never feel comfortable driving around an autonomous 18 wheeler, think about the road & severe weather conditions, someone hijacking into the technology, or stealing cargo from the trailers, specialized trucking like flatbed, hazmat tanker, oversized, touch frieght, and who's going to do the pre trip & connect the air/electrical lines? And god forbid accidentally killing someone who will catch the manslaughter charge?
Andrea (No chance)
13 Jun 2021 21:09
A robot cannot replace the instincts of human driving knowledge, especially during extreme weather conditions. I haven’t even begun to discuss pre trip inspections or backing and parking a trailer in a dock. This takes many years to master. This is not like driving a car. Robots will NEVER replace a human driver.
Jayson (Low)
19 Feb 2026 20:11
There are to many customer variables that make each delivery unique.
Truck Jim (Highly likely)
05 Nov 2025 12:23
Already notice many self driving cars.
Many flat straight roads dont require turns will be first routes becoming ai driven. Pay rates are a lot for what we do already.
Lars
28 Apr 2024 20:55
I don't think automation will be possible within 50 years for this type of work. Just think of the train that in the maximum line could also be automated immediately, but if you always try to have a train driver on board. Artificial intelligence is still too immature to be used in such a dangerous job. In conclusion, the truck driver is a job that is still too specialized and varied, to be robotic.
Shayne Thomas (Low)
25 Mar 2024 20:24
I just don't believe autonomous trucking could become a thing unless people were to give up their ability to drive themselves. If no one drove and it was just robots then it is a very plausible scenario. It would probably be safer and more efficient than if humans were driving the same trucks. The counter to that, I would say, is that it would only be that way if only robots were driving. This is because of human error, being impatient, not being a good driver, and driving under the influence. There are many factors to include when putting human drivers into the equation that cannot be calculated by a machine. Personally, I don't want to give up my own freedom to drive so companies could be slightly more efficient and I'm sure there are a lot of others who would feel similar.
Josh (Uncertain)
01 Nov 2023 14:18
Seems no one has visited this section in awhile. I think it's safe to say all previous comments and this assessment itself was based off over-hyped technology that has proven to be much more complicated than initially thought. The eventual automation of commercial drivers is probably high but still decades away with the current challenges.
Anonymous (Uncertain)
30 Jan 2023 14:01
It's going to be automated; it's not debatable. The question is, "How soon will it happen?" My guess is that it's going to take another 20 to 50 years before the technology is sophisticated enough to displace human beings. At that point, it'd no longer be an attractive or plausible occupation for most.

If you're in your 30s, you can likely still make an income from trucking, and you may even be able to ride it out until retirement. However, if you're the next generation of kids, probably not.
Matt (Highly likely)
25 Jan 2022 17:22
As a truck driver, I have mixed views on automated driving. I don't see any evidence that a truck could be 100% autonomous in my lifetime. There is so much more to trucking than just driving, a lot more.
Ryan R
03 Jun 2021 23:42
Likely sooner. There are already semi trucks with AI learn cameras installed on them going around. Won't be shocked if it's sooner than a decade.
Steve W.
12 May 2021 04:31
Bad news: Search for "This Year, Autonomous Trucks Will Take to the Road With No One on Board" Autonomous trucks are here! Expect to find a new career as early as 2024.
Kevin
07 Sep 2024 12:57
Here we are and nope no where to be found. Doctors and lawyers will have to find new jobs before truck drivers.
William Sturges (Low)
14 Apr 2021 12:59
Still will need a person in truck. Robots will not fuel truck or complete a UsDot inspection. It also can not get and sign paperwork or know what loading/unloading door or dock is required.
R.D. (Low)
13 Mar 2021 19:48
Interfacing with the customer...a robot? The tractor's today are overweight with computer help and, create more of a problem. Just ask any truckdriver.
Daniel Churchley (Highly likely)
24 Jan 2021 13:25
As a hgv driver I see how vehicles are evolving and I am also aware of how much money is being invested in automation with companies like Tesla
Pat D
10 Jan 2021 03:28
Companies will have to have a person in every tractor trailer to oversee fueling if it's long haul. Unless they have automated fuel stops all over the country. I say 50 years min for total automated trucking. I'll send my kids though IT school by then
james (Low)
18 Dec 2020 16:20
I don't think so my job means a lot to me and it should not be automated I make a living for my family
fabe g (No chance)
17 Feb 2020 05:27
I highly doubt the safety laws of the government will allow it. Even the bad rap Tesla is getting for serious accidents
Eric 2024
25 Dec 2020 11:38
This is very true. I doubt that the republican party would allow something like this to happen. They have already protected the working class drivers from the immigrants in mexico. Did you know that 95% of our truck drivers our white americans. This will continue. We have beaten the mexicans and we will beat the Robots.
A
26 Dec 2019 16:02
No way. I'm all for automation in areas that are not life critical/life sensitive (stocking shelves, customer service, picking orders, cashiering, bookkeeping), but society is playing with fire here. There will be countless innocent deaths on the roads if this is adopted on a large scale. But hey, those lives are just cannon fodder/pawns in the game of industrial progress right? You watch the media spin automated trucking as immoral when the first lives lost are a group of high earning fund managers, lawyers, or IT managers.
Alex
04 Mar 2021 09:33
Self-driving vehicles have caused only a handful of deaths globally, and those problems get fixed pretty quickly. Humans cause thousands of motor accidents every day. There will be next to no fatalities on the road if self-driving cars are on them, especially since they can connect with each other to figure out optimal routes and such.
Jake (Low)
10 Oct 2019 11:11
Dedicated consistent routes will be possible but irregular long haul and in city jobs will take longer. Driving a truck and driving a car are totally different and I think people don't really understand how different they truly are.

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Job description

Drive a tractor-trailer combination or a truck with a capacity of at least 26,001 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW). May be required to unload truck. Requires commercial drivers' license. Includes tow truck drivers.

O*NET-SOC code: 53-3032.00