The Snowflake is a visual summary of the five badges: Automation Risk (calculated), Risk (polled), Growth, Wages and Volume. It gives you an instant snapshot of an occupations profile. The colour of the Snowflake relates to its size. The better the occupation scores in relation to others, the larger and greener the Snowflake becomes.

JOB SCORE

4.3/10

What's this?

Job Score (higher is better):

We rate jobs using four factors. These are:

- Chance of being automated
- Job growth
- Wages
- Volume of available positions

These are some key things to think about when job hunting.

Risk & user votes

Calculated automation risk

68% (High Risk)

High Risk (61-80%): This occupation shows a significant risk of end-to-end replacement by automation. Many core parts of the role may be structured, repeatable, software-driven, or physically predictable enough for AI, machines, or robotic systems to take over. If you work in this area, it may be worth exploring safer related careers or moving towards more human-centred responsibilities.

More information on what this score is, and how it is calculated is available here.

Human strengths important in this job

These are human abilities and work contexts that are important in this occupation. They may help explain why parts of the role are harder to replace end-to-end, but they are not the only inputs into the automation score.

Decision-making and problem solving

Quite important

Why this matters

Analyze information, weigh tradeoffs, and choose the best solution—especially when situations are ambiguous, high-stakes, or have real-world consequences.

Jobs that also use this strength

Communicating with people outside the organization

Quite important

Why this matters

Represents the organization to customers, the public, or government—handling questions, concerns, and relationship-building through conversations, writing, calls, or email.

Jobs that also use this strength

What users think

Based on 660 votes

62% chance of full automation within the next two decades

Our visitors have voted that it's probable this occupation will be automated. This assessment is further supported by the calculated automation risk level, which estimates 68% chance of automation.

What do you think the risk of automation is?

What is the likelihood that Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence within the next 20 years?

Highly likely

Moderate

Uncertain

Low

No chance

Sentiment

Based on user votes over time

View sentiment trend

How opinions have changed over time

Pay & outlook

Wages

Moderately paid relative to other professions

In 2024, the median annual wage for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers was $57,440 ($28 per hour).

The median annual wage for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers was 16.0% higher than the national median annual wage, which stood at $49,500.

View wage trend

Wages over time

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Growth

Fast growth relative to other professions

The number of 'Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers' job openings is expected to rise 4.0% by 2034

View employment trend

Total employment, and estimated job openings

* Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period between 2023 and 2033
Updated projections are due 09-2025.

Volume

Significantly greater range of job opportunities compared to other professions

As of 2024 there were 2,070,480 people employed as 'Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers' within the United States.

This represents around 1.3% of the employed workforce across the country

Put another way, around 1 in 74 people are employed as 'Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers'.

What people are saying (43)

Jayson (Low)

19 Feb 2026 20:11

There are to many customer variables that make each delivery unique.

Truck Jim (Highly likely)

05 Nov 2025 12:23

Already notice many self driving cars.
Many flat straight roads dont require turns will be first routes becoming ai driven. Pay rates are a lot for what we do already.

AJ (Low)

26 Sep 2025 02:55

Autonomous driving is coming, however, there is sometime before error free driving will exist for normal cars. For big rigs, who have many variables which need to be looked after whilst in the road, whilst parking, whilst loading and unloading, routes, what your load is. It is the kind of job which will always require human supervision because you’re literally driving a tank down the road which also at times has hazardous material. Cars is one things, a semi is a whole different ball game

ang (Low)

04 Aug 2025 16:55

A lot of the job is about more than just driving. It's about a human being there to handle all the unexpected stuff, from inspecting the truck to dealing with a flat tire on a back road.

12 Mar 2025 02:47

I will never feel comfortable driving around an autonomous 18 wheeler, think about the road & severe weather conditions, someone hijacking into the technology, or stealing cargo from the trailers, specialized trucking like flatbed, hazmat tanker, oversized, touch frieght, and who's going to do the pre trip & connect the air/electrical lines? And god forbid accidentally killing someone who will catch the manslaughter charge?

Stan (No chance)

09 Sep 2024 17:45

The roads are not well maintained and smooth causing weather to be a high judgment factor.

Kevin (Low)

07 Sep 2024 12:54

AI cannot adapt to road conditions, it also can not chain tires, drop trailers or easily re route in a big truck. It's very unlikely that big class A trucks will be replaced by an AI, unless trillions are spent on inferstucre. Also thefts would be much more of a problem along with safety features.

Imagine thieves braking in front of a big truck and it stops as to not hit them and they look the trailer or disconnect it.

There's too much liability, along with small tasks and decisions that need to be made on the fly.

It's much more likely doctors and lawyers will be replaced first because AI could diagnose you and do surgical procedures. 1 doctor or lawyer could open up a practice and manage hundreds of clients with a powerful enough AI before class A trucks could be safely implemented and insured.

Evan (Uncertain)

29 Apr 2024 14:28

because i think that we could make self driving trucks, but the driver itself has to problem solve like first off what if the truck is about to run over a car but the sencors are broken in that area. but if we had a human driver then they could problem solve and quick swerve away

Lars

28 Apr 2024 20:55

I don't think automation will be possible within 50 years for this type of work. Just think of the train that in the maximum line could also be automated immediately, but if you always try to have a train driver on board. Artificial intelligence is still too immature to be used in such a dangerous job. In conclusion, the truck driver is a job that is still too specialized and varied, to be robotic.

Shayne Thomas (Low)

25 Mar 2024 20:24

I just don't believe autonomous trucking could become a thing unless people were to give up their ability to drive themselves. If no one drove and it was just robots then it is a very plausible scenario. It would probably be safer and more efficient than if humans were driving the same trucks. The counter to that, I would say, is that it would only be that way if only robots were driving. This is because of human error, being impatient, not being a good driver, and driving under the influence. There are many factors to include when putting human drivers into the equation that cannot be calculated by a machine. Personally, I don't want to give up my own freedom to drive so companies could be slightly more efficient and I'm sure there are a lot of others who would feel similar.

Josh (Uncertain)

01 Nov 2023 14:18

Seems no one has visited this section in awhile. I think it's safe to say all previous comments and this assessment itself was based off over-hyped technology that has proven to be much more complicated than initially thought. The eventual automation of commercial drivers is probably high but still decades away with the current challenges.

Anonymous (Uncertain)

30 Jan 2023 14:01

It's going to be automated; it's not debatable. The question is, "How soon will it happen?" My guess is that it's going to take another 20 to 50 years before the technology is sophisticated enough to displace human beings. At that point, it'd no longer be an attractive or plausible occupation for most.

If you're in your 30s, you can likely still make an income from trucking, and you may even be able to ride it out until retirement. However, if you're the next generation of kids, probably not.

Jeremy

15 Aug 2022 23:31

It's truly the case that Tesla is leading with the new Cyber Trucks and future models. How much profit can be made by just selling 1,000 trucks? There is a huge market.

All they need is a new law with dedicated trucker lanes, similar to bike or bus lanes.

2nd rule of the pirate code: Curfew by 10 PM

27 Oct 2023 21:01

"All they need is a new law with dedicated trucker lanes, similar to bike or bus lanes."
So, you want a dedicated lane for a Heavy vehicle to drive through, which the heavy vehicle in question is dedicated solely to transporting materials and goods.

You are describing a Train.
But specifically a train that moves on streets and highways. If there are two things the U.S loves (assuming we are talking specifically about the U.S), it's Guns and Cars. I doubt people would be too happy letting a big portion of driveable area get used up nor would they be happy to have it drive next to them, because the fear of it malfunctioning would be heightened. That's also not to mention how primitive the ai is for self driving, and the potential ethical concerns.

I do think that Ai will replace delivery jobs like this, but It'll most likely be in a form that would have the least potential to cause damage, like a drone or a train out in the middle of nowhere.

Mr. Nobody (Low)

12 Jul 2022 20:03

Certain cities have a very tight shipping/receiving docks, not to mention the streets.. who’s going to chain up the tires in the snow?

Nathan (Moderate)

22 May 2022 23:16

Even though working on trucks will become safer, it will still be unsafe and there is a likelihood of getting hurt.

Mark (Low)

19 Apr 2022 13:05

Parts of the trucking industry are likely to be automated in the next 20 years. For instance, long-distance convoys. But truckers do more than just drive. They also do maintenance, load balancing, inspections, and sometimes loading and unloading at destinations.

As such, for short-haul routes, the "driving" part is a relatively minor part of the job. Even if it's automated, the trucker is still needed. For long-haul routes, robotic convoys will indeed eliminate the need for some drivers. But each convoy will still need a shepherd for the other duties that can't be substantially eliminated in that period of time.

Matt (Highly likely)

25 Jan 2022 17:22

As a truck driver, I have mixed views on automated driving. I don't see any evidence that a truck could be 100% autonomous in my lifetime. There is so much more to trucking than just driving, a lot more.

31 Dec 2021 01:03

Lol, if you've ever been a local city truck driver, this will never happen. Maybe interstate driving could be automated for the mega-corporations, but local driving in a major city? Probably never. The fact that this has such a high likelihood of getting votes proves that you shouldn't blindly believe anyone on the internet who tells you anything. Most of the votes are clearly not from anyone in the industry.

RB Hopson (Low)

08 Oct 2021 14:20

Although the tech will be here soon, I think the infrastructure required to fully automate this sector will take much longer to implement.

Nico Cione (Highly likely)

09 Sep 2021 15:15

I think that there will be driverless electric-powered trucks in the future.

Job description

Drive a tractor-trailer combination or a truck with a capacity of at least 26,001 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW). May be required to unload truck. Requires commercial drivers' license. Includes tow truck drivers.

O*NET-SOC code: 53-3032.00

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

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